Monthly Archives: January 2012

Tips on Childcare


 

There is so much I could say about the life changing experience of having a child.  But I am going to restrict myself here to an important parenting lesson I learned about dealing with bad behaviour.

It seemed entirely counter intuitive but it made sense and most importantly it worked. I was reminded of it because a friend older than me recently took his first steps into parenthood.  Every time I ask him how his little one is he responds, “so naughty lah, so naughty.”  There are many different books and some very scary techniques out there but this is what worked for me then and still does now.

I have to say my son was the perfect baby. Like me you probably remember heaping praise on your child as he got older especially when we did those things for the first time.  “Wow that’s great you can put your shoes on” But when I was presented with challenging behaviour as he grew, like my friend who just became a father recently,  I got it all wrong.

When my son behaved perfectly,  sitting on the carpet engrossed in a jigsaw puzzle or playing with his little wooden train set for example, I would see this as a perfect opportunity to get busy myself somewhere else.   He’s keeping himself occupied I thought, I don’t have to pay attention to him. Now I can do some work, call some friends, read my book.

Conversely when he got frustrated and behaved badly or yelled I would leap up and pay attention to him.  What I  didn’t realise is that getting the attention is the holy grail for all children. Children want attention, even negative attention. They soon learn that if they can’t get positive attention they can quickly manipulate and monopolise their parents’ time to get attention for bad behaviour instead. We encourage and actually even train our children to act badly by paying attention to the naughty behaviour and ignoring the good. What I had to learn to do was to heap that praise on my son for playing nicely by himself or sharing his toys nicely and not to ignore him when he was doing the behaviour I wanted to see more of.

Just as it’s important to reward the good behaviour of children, it is also important to fail to reward bad behaviour. Child rearing experts tell us that actively ignoring inappropriate behaviour is called “extinction” and it actually weakens that bad behaviour. Bad behaviour includes,

  • Whining, fussing, pouting and sulking
  • Telling falsehoods
  • Loud complaining in public intended to manipulate
  • Grabbing another’s toys
  • And even tantrums in public

When children live in an extremely restrictive environment where little attention is paid to them normally then this will result in an escalation of bad behaviour. Bad behaviour will become the norm. Everyone will point to their children and say they can only squabble. Often times this bad behaviour will be expressed more and more in public.  For some this is because being ignored is a fate worse than death.

I only have one child but some children live under a regime where their parents have favourites and this creates sibling rivalry. The children see favourite sibling A getting all the limelight. Some parents also build up sibling B in case anything happens to A.  Of course each child is an individual. Even with two children it is often clear that they are like chalk and cheese and parents often express surprise at how different the second sibling is to the first. This is how it should be. How awful it would be if all our children are the same like clones. Parenting requires respecting and nurturing individuality whilst encouraging the children to cooperate. It is not necessary for any child to lose his individuality or subsume his essential nature to learn to play nicely with other kids. The key is cooperation.

But bad behaviour escalates as a result of this sibling rivalry. This is why we talk of middle child syndrome.

We must make sure we don’t inadvertently reward that bad behaviour by focusing on it, writing about it and even pointing a camera or recording device at those children having a temper tantrum in public.

The PM recently said that the odds were against his children going into politics. I believe it is also wise not to let your children go on to the stage. The gossip magazines are full of press about the temper tantrums of Suri Cruise and other famous offspring.  Even adults have been proven to behave differently the moment a camera is pointed at them .

Clean Is Not the New Transparent

In his Parliamentary speech, the PM highlighted the clean pay of our Ministers.  Gerard Ee also drew a lot of attention to this descriptor and everyone else involved on the PAP side. When the PAP attempt to entrench a phrase or a word into the public lexicon this way then we know we are being subjected to propaganda. Then of course the Main Stream Media exists only to drill these phrases into the national subconscious. However we are getting better as a nation at examining the double speak. I very much doubt that The PM will be able to refer to himself or his cabinet as ‘Servant Leaders’ any more without an accompanying hullabaloo. These days they restrict themselves to mentions of ‘sacrifice’ and ‘considerable sacrifice’. Even that didn’t go so well for Grace Fu.

What is their motive behind the selection of ‘clean’ to describe the rationale for high pay? One reason is that they can no longer say that high pay is to prevent corruption. That has been stopped in its tracks by the voice of the people who point out the absurdity of the argument. They choose to talk about ‘clean’ because apart from being uncomplicated and simple it has connotations of transparency. They know that the demands for transparency from the people and Parties such as The Reform Party are growing in strength and this is an attempt to head it off at the pass. However we must remember that there is a world of opacity between clean and transparent. My coffee table may be clean but you can’t watch TV through it.

Clean is safe. Transparency leads to accountability and that in turn to democracy.

The PM also drew comparisons between our Ministers’ clean pay and the “hidden perks” of politicians in other countries. He cited theUK’s experience as an example.  He points out that it was accepted that MPs in the UK would be able to top up their pay by claiming for expenses, and that over time the system was abused. It is always dangerous to compare one Nation’s system to another in this puerile way without the whole story.

Yes, Britain was involved in a scandal over MP expenses. The PM omits to point out that being an MP in the UK is a full-time job that requires two homes in different parts of the country. The complicated expenses allowance system came about to offset the costs that MPs in Britain have to shoulder due to the requirement to live in their constituency whilst Parliament sits in Westminster. Those living around London can commute but MP’s living in the North for example could be 600-700 miles away from London.

In contrast, being an MP in Singapore is very much a part-time job. Parliament only sits for something like 30 days a year which is the shortest sitting in the developed world.  And most PAP MPs have other jobs, many of which allow them to earn a multiple of their Parliamentary salaries. A not insignificant proportion of these jobs are with government-linked companies or organisations.  The ‘finger in every pie’ is sadly a common theme on this blog

The PM also misleadingly claims that paying enormous salaries prevents Singapore politics from turning into a rich man’s game. He cites the US in particular using the examples of Michael Bloomberg and Mitt Romney. He cannot really mean this when everything the PAP has done has been to try to make a political career an unwise career option unless you are from the ruling party. There have been endless and interminable libel suits designed to bankrupt political opponents as well as attempts to use “grievous miscarriages of justice” to destroy brave individuals’ professional careers.

The PM then cites President Obama as someone who has become wealthy through politics. Again he shouldn’t attempt to make facile comparisons.  Both Obama and former President Bill Clinton came from humble backgrounds. If they have become wealthy it is because the US allows a diversity of views that our government tries to stamp out. If they had been in Singapore they would have been destroyed at the outset as not suitable by virtue of not coming from the elite, top talent.   Furthermore the USA allows greater social mobility than Singapore.  Anyone from a humble background can end up owning a landed property through hard work and talent. Here 87% of the people have the government as a landlord on a leased property with a grievous obstacle to social mobility as a consequence.

The PM’s father, former MM Lee once spoke along the lines of how there would be little social mobility going forward as by 1990 all those with high intelligence would have already risen to the top. In any case I am sure Obama’s wealth is modest by comparison with most of the cabinet. Unfortunately there is no requirement here to publicly list assets and directorships of family members or put them into a blind trust as is the norm in the US. That the salaries are ‘clean’ is debatable but they are not transparent.

The comparison with Obama is unfortunate in every sense. If he had been in Singapore we can imagine the musings on how he made Little India look pitch dark and how as a dud from a humble background he had to be kept out of Parliament. And of course Obama would never have been put to stand in an SMC but kept as an entrenched token of minority representation in a GRC.

Belief that politics should only be for the wealthy is deeply ingrained in the PAP’s thinking and is the only true rationale for any pay decisions.  In fact during the 1980s the former MM Lee went as far as to muse on the possibility of having multiple votes for graduates and property owners. Youngsters may find that incredible but he did.

The bars to political fundraising, the GRC system and the raising of electoral deposits to astronomical heights are all designed to prevent ordinary people from exercising their fundamental and democratic right to choose their representatives. As recently as 2006 this was effective in giving the PAP walkovers in nearly 50% of the constituencies. Fortunately 2011 saw that the tide was turning and people were no longer prepared to put up with a system that could see people going without the chance to vote for most of their adult lives.

As an illustration of how only those with deep pockets can afford to be in politics if they are not members of the ruling party, all the candidates for the recent Presidential election belonged to the top 1% of income earners. This is not surprising given the size of the deposit that one has to put up to run which is forfeited if you fail to gain more than one-eighth of the vote.

In contrast the UK sets deposits at a modest $1,000 equivalent which means that most constituencies see multiple-cornered fights. This is as it should be since there should be a chance for all competing views to be heard. The electorate is educated and sophisticated enough to be able to make up their own minds without the government deciding for them who should be heard in the first place. The need for deep pockets is so deeply ingrained here that it has affected the structure of politics in general in Singapore and given it an elitist bias. We must guard against this. Democracy should not and must not be the preserve of those with deep pockets.

So, Mr. Prime Minister, I do not find convincing your assertion that paying high salaries to ministers in Singapore is needed to prevent politics becoming a rich man’s game. I would turn this on its head. The only way someone from a humble background can have a political career in Singapore is if they are prepared to become a “yes-man” and toe the line.

Another Ministerial salary sob story

The PM recently brought out a violin in Parliament and plucked the heart-strings with his sad song about the lack of revolving doors in Singapore leading to loss on income.  Apparently our Ministers are unable to take advantage of the revolving door system common in other countries. There wasn’t a dry eye in the house.   Before you reach for your hankies, I should point out that it is not true! The “revolving door” phenomenon whereby ex-Ministers and MPs move into the private sector is just as active in Singapore as it is elsewhere. (and also the PM didn’t actually have a violin)

If, as the PM says, the post-political earnings potential of our ex-Ministers is much lower than that in other countries, then that is a clear indicator of the quality of our Ministers. Whatever one thinks of the man or his politics, Tony Blair is a good speaker. No wonder Blair is paid so much on the lecture circuit. Bill Clinton also earns his keep. Who would pay to hear our Ministers?

The PM has also cited so-called “clean” pay without any hidden perks as being the advantage of the Singapore system. He has omitted to mention the much more progressive tax systems in most of these countries which mean that when after-tax pay is compared, the divide between what our Ministers are paid and what leaders in other countries get would be even starker.

While some leaders may get free accommodation while in office, surely our PM also does not have to pay for his living costs when on overseas trips and for meals taken as part of his official duties.  A few days ago I wrote a blog post to refute the notion that high ministerial pay is there to recruit talent suggesting instead that it is there to buy loyalty and a culture of yes-men. I’ll now rebut some of the other frankly specious arguments the PM used to justify high ministerial pay.

Revolving Doors or Open Doors?

The PM cited the US as an example of a country where there is a ‘revolving door’ between the public and private sectors for politicians and government officials and where post-politics earning potential is high. However only recently we learnt that ex-Foreign Minister GeorgeYeo had joined the Kuok Group as vice-Chairman of its Hong Kong holding company, Kerry Group.   Property Edge in the ST cited this comment from one of its sources:

‘My guess is that he is there to open doors with his network of contacts from when he was foreign minister,’ said real estate veteran Peter Ow, who is managing director of SLP International Property Consultants.   ‘He can guide and advise them on expanding into new overseas markets,’ Mr Ow said. ‘When you do business in Third World countries, you need government contacts.’  

Similarly Ms Lim Hwee Hua was also appointed a non-executive director of Jardine Cycle and Carriage within two months of losing at Aljunied and in October she was appointed a Senior Adviser at the private equity behemoth KKR followed by being appointed to Ernst and Young’s Global Advisory Council. Likewise, Ong Ye Kung continues to be Deputy Secretary General of NTUC as well as sitting on the board of SMRT.   So contrary to what the PM claimed our Ministers and ex-PAP MPs, at least those of ability and with a high international profile, do not find it difficult to move into high-paying jobs in the private sector once they leave. I have no idea what KerryGroup are paying Mr.Yeo but I suspect that it cannot be too far from his previous Ministerial salary.

And Ms.Lim’s employers, KKR, one of the biggest private equity firms in the world, are not exactly renowned for paying badly. The PM’s claim that becoming a Minister is at great cost to one’s career is not borne out by the evidence.   In an article (http://sonofadud.com/market/comfort-and-city-cab-two-more-pies-with-fingers-in-them/) on the taxi monopoly, I wrote about how,

 “Its [Comfort Delgro] board and management are a splendid example of the Japanese practice of “amakudai” or “descent from heaven”.  Most of the board are ex-civil servants, former government scholars, or present or ex-MPs who have graduated here after careers with Temasek or one of its stable of companies.” This practice has been condemned in Japan where “The practice is increasingly viewed as corrupt and a drag on unfastening the ties between private sector and state which prevent economic and political reforms.”(Wikipedia).  

This practice of moving between the public and private sectors seems to be the norm in Singapore.  Blue chip companies obviously find it of benefit to appoint people with previous experience or connections with Temasek and other GLC-linked companies. With such an enormous public sector responsible directly and indirectly for up to 50% of GDP it may be difficult to avoid. However it would be worth examining the question of whether this results in conflicts of interest which get in the way of what should be a meritocracy and a competitive market. It may have real economic costs in terms of misallocation of resources. In Japan in 2007 the Asahi Shimbun published research which showed that 70% of companies that hired retired bureaucrats won contracts without going through a bidding process while this was true of only 18% of companies that did not.

The Venerable but Fake Argument for the Benefits of Stability

The PM also points to the benefits of stability in Singapore in that government ministers do not change very often. He again betrays his fundamental misunderstanding of the benefits of democracy and competition. Stability is not a normative goal unless it brings other benefits. The Soviet Union was very stable until it collapsed while North Korea today can be said to be a paragon of stability with the last name of the leader never-changing.  Competition in business results in innovation because of the pressure to perform and gain an edge. Monopolies or quasi-monopolies fail to change until it is too late. The same is true of politics. Where he sees stability, I see the danger of ‘yes men’.

The government’s long stewardship of the Singapore economy has resulted in a huge expansion of jobs for foreigners but has not done much to raise real incomes of Singaporeans over the last ten to fifteen years. A large part of foreigners’ high regard for Singapore is bound up with the fact that it is perceived as so easy for them to come here and work. We should welcome foreign talent but not to the detriment of our own people. While we may not have performed markedly worse than other advanced countries in raising living standards over the last decade it does not provide a convincing argument for high ministerial pay.  

What is the Bonus for?

I can’t see the point of having a bonus.  Why pay someone for doing a job well when it is their obligation to do that job well? It is public service after all. And they were chosen for their ‘ top talent’  ability to do it in the first place.  Bonuses in the city work in a different way. The basic pay can be very low almost negligible.  The bonus is a fixed percentage of clear profit earned for the firm. If you mess up and make a loss or only a small profit then you barely get paid that year.  This also has the benefit of weeding out those lacking talent for the work who can’t affords to keep at it without a bonus.  Also, while the new KPIs that the bonus is based on are a little more appropriate,  they have still retained GDP which can be manipulated by increasing immigration. Why would we give our Ministers a bonus for creating the problem not the solution? Even the new KPIs are potentially easy to manipulate as the Statistics Department is not independent.

A Better Way

If the PM really wants to justify such high Ministerial salaries then I suggest that part of the Ministerial bonus be deferred till after they leave office, rather like gardening leave with private sector employers. Then if they get alternative employment within say three years of leaving office this portion would be forfeited. This would act as a tax on the valuable experience and contacts built up in office. It would ensure that part of this externality was captured by the nation rather than going solely to the individual concerned. A future employer would then have to evaluate whether it was worth it to buy the Minister out of his deferred bonus, rather like the scholarship bond functions today.

See continuation here…http://sonofadud.com/2012/01/26/clean-is-not-the-new-transparent/

The PM on Paying For Talent !

Excessive Ministerial pay is not there to secure talent. If the government were interested in talent it would want to promote competition and encourage a market place of ideas.

This is what I said when interviewed by Today in 2010, http://sonofadud.com/about-ricebowl/about/interview-for-today-newspaper-in-2010-which-explains-a-little-bit-about-me/

The PAP may be against the two-party system but it’s inevitable, as we have seen in Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia. The problem with the one-party system is not corruption – at least not in Singapore because the Government is not corrupt – but it leads to a society closed to new ideas, with too many “yes men”.

Nothing much has changed since that interview except maybe that women are proving to be the best “Yes Men” amongst the Ministerial ranks and we are realising that the key word in discussion of Ministerial pay is not “corrupt” but “obscene”.  The PAP still takes steps to ensure that only the official point of view is heard. Betraying its Communist roots, the PAP is organised as an old-fashioned monopolist where high pay levels reflect the lack of competition.  Like the cadre system or the nomenklatura system for the Stalinist and Brezhnev-era elite, the payment of economic rent is there to ensure loyalty and a cabinet of yes-men.

Yesterday the PM gave his rationale for our excessive Ministerial salaries. He asked several important questions,

  • Can a future PM continue to get the best and most committed people to serve as his ministers?
  • In fact, can we get the best possible future PM for Singapore?
  • How can our pay system support this important goal?

So far so good but of course for our dear PM these were just rhetorical questions.  In fact he failed to answer them and instead side-stepped and answered some easier questions. That’s disappointing. For me one of the most interesting aspects of the Pay review commission has been the questions asked.GerardEestarted his presentation with the question,

  • What is Singapore?

Gerard answered his question by saying that Singapore is a rock and then used that as justification for the pay levels but the question is one that requires further discussion.  Many Singaporeans would say that Singapore is a Nation of convenience for whoever wants to take advantage of our tax haven and secret banking facilities. A Nation built on a rock by the sweat of our brow for the convenience of others, who now reap our just rewards.

The Prime Minister answers his own  rhetorical questions by going on to say that it was only by paying people well (obscenely well by the standards of what ordinary Singaporeans earn and by the pay of politicians in other countries with similar or higher living standards) that Singapore could get these people to come forward.  There may be public-spirited people among us, PM Lee asked, “But will there be enough of them to produce a whole team of ministers, a whole Cabinet equal to the task and with the standards which we have come to expect?”  (ST, 18th January).

The problem is not the pay structure as a barrier or an enticement. Part of the obstacle to developing talent as I have said elsewhere is the cadre system.

I have also already written elsewhere (http://sonofadud.com/2012/01/05/a-committee-that-cannot-calculate-the-median-of-the-top-1000-is-either-deliberately-misleading-the-public-or-incompetent/) about how absurd it is to benchmark the pay of politicians against the median income (including stock options!) of the top 1,000 earners. Many of these people will be genuine wealth creators who have founded innovative companies or created new products or even whole new technologies. Imagine if President Obama was to say that his pay should be pegged to what Steve Jobs,Mark Zuckerberg or Larry Page earned in any year. I cannot say for certain what reception he would receive but I suspect that it would be universal derision.

A question I would like to see the PM answer is,

How many of the top 1,000 earners are CEOs or top management of government-or NTUC-linked companies or civil servants?”

Since the government sets the salaries of those in the public sector we seem to have an inbuilt mechanism for rampant pay inflation of public-sector managers. The latter are already overpaid compared to their counterparts in the private sector (particularly when job security and pensions are taken into account).

In any case this government should not pretend that it wants talented people to step forward and enter politics. For fifty years they have taken the harshest steps to raise the barriers to entry to politics for Singaporeans and to ensure that those who dared to have different ideas paid an enormous financial and personal cost. In the past they detained people, often for longer than a murderer would receive. When this became difficult after the fall of Communism, they switched to using defamation suits to bankrupt their opponents. Whether justified or not, there is still a perception in most Singaporean’s minds, reinforced by the government’s stifling control over the domestic economy, that standing for an Opposition party or even being a member of one is the kiss of death to one’s career prospects.

In the realm of ideas, the Newspaper and Printing Presses Act and total control of the media ensure that views which do not accord with the ruling party or even the approved Opposition do not get aired. The same restrictions apply to debates and forums. Requirements that political parties register their websites and apply for annual newspaper licences reinforce this. Even in the new social media, the state-run media, aided by their monopoly profits elsewhere, have established a dominant presence and a well-funded and staffed clandestine internet brigade ensures that those who have dissenting views are subjected to the internet equivalent of being shouted down. While this would be fine if there was genuine freedom of expression the fact is that the right of reply is not established anywhere.

The government has never believed that competition is the best way to ensure that we do get the top talent.  Even in the narrow field of electoral competition the government behaves like the convoy system in WWII. In order to cross open seas the smaller weaker vessels were put in the centre and surrounded by battleships and destroyers on the outside. The GRC system allows unelectable newbies, speaking with the voices of entitlement and privilege (Tin Pei Ling, Janil Puthucheary) to shelter beneath the big guns of Ministers and Ministers of State and pass untested into Parliament. Until the last election more than 50% of them could expect to do this without even the formality of an electoral contest. No wonder Grace protested.

I believe the PM is substituting the question of “How do I get the best people to come forward” which is difficult to answer with the easier question of,

How do I get people to come forward who will be loyal yes-men (or women) and not have any views of their own?”

Perhaps the PM is not totally cynical and actually believes he is answering the first question when in fact he is answering the second. He is himself a victim of brainwashing and cannot see that he is confusingSingapore’s interests with those of the PAP. Knowing that loyalty rather than talent is the real objective of the pay system also helps to explain some of the puzzling remarks that have been made by people like Grace Fu. In business people generally want to be compensated for towing the company line and stifling their own creativity and originality. Giving Grace Fu the benefit of the doubt perhaps that is what she meant when she said that cutting the pay of ministers any further might induce her to rethink her commitment to politics. Or her comments may be indicative of cracks within the PAP. Was this a warning shot across the bows? A warning that she didn’t get into this for the good of the country and that if she is not even to be compensated adequately for her loss of privacy, (and the 1,400 negative Facebook comments)  then don’t be too confident on her continued support in the future.

We must ask, would it be so bad if all the Chan Chun Sings and Tin Pei Lings of Singapore were forced to contest in a free and fair election, one candidate per ward, and the majority of them lost their seats. Well normally in a democracy that wouldn’t be a tragedy or a national disaster because equally talented people would be sitting across the hall in team B waiting to serve. It is the PAP’s 50 years of squashing alternative views that has brought us to the current situation.

So PM please drop the sanctimonious humbug about (obscenely) high pay being necessary to induce good people to come forward. If you are genuinely interested in the widest possible talent pool and the best people (whether in the PAP or an alternative government) then you would adopt the following steps (these are just a few of the many suggestions) before paying your ministers top salaries:

  • Abolish restrictions on freedom of expression
  • Dismantle the Newspaper and Printing presses Act
  • Abolish the ISA
  • Abolish the GRC system
  • Reform the defamation laws
  • Remove race from our IC cards
  • Raise the status and profile of the Opposition by creating the title of Leader of the Opposition and paying that person like a minister (as is the practice in the UK and other countries) Give Opposition parties working budgets and office space.
  • Broaden access and funding for scholarships but restrict the monetary component to students from lower-income groups while eliminating the requirement to be bonded. This would reduce “groupthink” while promoting equality of opportunity and hopefully lessening income inequality as well.
  • Support open debate and free thinking. Encourage and support a culture of diversity of views.

Only after that can we start to examine how our pay structure can support talent once it has been identified and nurtured. Then we can start looking at the big questions such as, What is Singapore? What do we want it to be?

Rajiv Chaudhry on Ministerial Pay- missing the point.

Your fundamental point that it is wrong in principle to peg minister’s salaries to private sector earners is correct.

Both the committee on ministerial salaries and other opposition parties who are focusing on salaries of political leaders in other countries are missing the point. The committee can be forgiven, to an extent, because their terms of reference required a correlation with private-sector salaries (an example of starting a race with a handicap). Those calling for a relationship with salaries of politicians in other countries are also missing the forest for the trees both because the situation in each country is unique to its own circumstances and also because knowing the correct salaries can be problematic, given the many hidden perks that go with the jobs.

Singapore’s situation is unique to itself. Arguably the correct way to concentrate (political) minds is to prescribe salaries as multiples of the median wage. The existing (pre-adjustment) top political salaries at $4 million plus (the actual figures will never be known, given that we are not privy to the bonuses paid out) are at least 110 times the median figure, assuming the latter at $36,000 a year (a generous estimate, on average).

Again, arguably, the goal of development should be to move towards a more egalitarian society. In this respect, it may be noted that in the Nordic countries, generally regarded as the most egalitarian societies on the planet, top-earners among the salaried class earn a multiple of three times that of the bottom. In other words, a CEO of a typical company earns three times what a fresh graduate, joining the company, would earn. This sounds extraordinary in the Singapore context but is true (of course, general education levels are also much higher in these societies).

As a starting point, top political salaries (those of the President and Prime Minister) could be pegged at, say, 50 times the median wage, with a commitment to bring the multiple down in stages over a 10-20 year period. This would give a new top salary of $1.8 million with corresponding adjustments all the way down the civil service. This, to use your phrase, would provide the most powerful incentive available, a direct correlation with ordinary citizens wages, to raise the median income of Singaporeans.

Of course, there are not many examples in history of dominant groups voluntarily reducing their wages. The solution, as with many other things in Singapore, will no doubt come through the ballot box.

A committee that cannot calculate the median of the top 1000 is either deliberately misleading the public or incompetent.

Happy New Year!

The following is a Press release I wrote in my capacity as SG of  The Reform Party. The more I think about it the more it concerns me that the Committee could make such a fundamental error  in their  understanding of median calculations. You’ll find my explanation of the  true figure in the Press release below under the heading,

The committee said that with the discount, the pay is actually closer to the top 1,400th earner.”

Wrong! The median of the top 1000 is the mid-point between the 500th and the 501st earner. Applying a 40% discount to the amount earned by the 500th earner does not mean that the resultant salary would necessarily be close to that earned by the 1,400th earner or even the 700th earner (which is what 40% more than 500 comes to ). ………”

Did the committee actually deliberately attempt to mislead the public? At the time that I wrote my Press release I thought not – but  now I’m not so sure. Maybe when feedback came back to them that linking Ministerial pay with the top 0.02%  of earners in the country would send the wrong message they sought to downplay it. The figure 1,400th sounds so much better than 501st or even 700th. The only other explanation for the fundamental mistake  is that they don’t understand the Math. We need to be seriously concerned about this. If  a civil servant heading an enquiry produced this type of error anywhere else then heads would roll. In may opinion it goes to the heart of credibility of the whole report.

Those of you who are interested can find an earlier release on the same subject published in May  soon after the announcement was made where I made proposals some of which have been picked up by the Committee . http://thereformparty.net/about/press-releases/the-reform-party%E2%80%99s-response-to-the-setting-up-of-a-committee-to-review-ministerial-pay/

Anyway please do read on and let me have your views.

Press Release

The Reform Party is disappointed by the report of the Ministerial Salary Review Committee released today. The Prime Minister first announced that a review of ministerial salaries would be commissioned as a response to what was seen as a critical criticism of the Government during GE2011. In short it was a public relations exercise. Judging by the report issued by the committee today, the government may be in danger of scoring an own goal. The overall impression is that the pay review recommendation will entrench the public view of Ministers as overpaid and the PAP leadership as an uncaring, elite out of touch with the needs of the majority of Singaporeans.

We feel it was a mistake to peg the salaries to top earners and by installing a cut in basic salaries the committee is admitting that ministers were previously overpaid. Despite Mr Ee’s description of Singapore as a ‘rock’ with a unique set of conditions he cannot justify the continued disparity between ministerial pay here and that of any other advanced Nation. The amount that Ministers will take home is still obscene and the recommendations will only encourage divisive policies. The committee was not open, sufficiently independent nor transparent in its workings nor did it recommend complete transparency. The methodology is suspect, the statistics are erroneous and the weightings are not disclosed.

We understand that the Committee is between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand their recommendations need to placate the public anger over ministerial salaries and so appear to make the PAP elite seem responsive to the voting public come GE 2016. On the other hand they need to continue to make the government political service an attractive and fulfilling career move for the ‘talented.’

Basic misunderstanding of median calculations
We will look at some individual areas of the report and Mr Ee’s preamble in more detail below. But before we go into that we would like to draw attention to a fundamental beginner’s mathematical error made by the committee. According to today’s report by CNA,

“The committee said that with the discount, the pay is actually closer to the top 1,400th earner.”

Wrong! The median of the top 1000 is the mid-point between the 500th and the 501st earner. Applying a 40% discount to the amount earned by the 500th earner does not mean that the resultant salary would necessarily be close to that earned by the 1,400th earner or even the 700th earner (which is what 40% more than 500 comes to ). It would depend on the distribution of incomes between the 500th and the 700th earner. A reasonable inference resulting from this kind of elementary statistical mistake leads one to doubt the quality of the statistics used by the committee to underpin the pegging of the salaries and the Key Performance Indicators for bonus awards. We cannot believe that the committee would deliberately be disingenuous or mislead the public with such an erroneous statement so we must assume that this kind of fundamental error is merely indicative of the ‘top talent’ that the government attracts.

The three guiding principles
Mr. Ee describes the three main principles which he kept in mind whilst producing the report as being
1. a desire to keep ministerial salaries competitive in order to attract the right calibre of talent
2. to safeguard the ethos of sacrifice entailed by public service , hence the discount
3. to produce a clean wage system with no hidden perks

In an interview with Today newspaper in May 2009 I said that absolute power doesn’t produce corruption as generally believed but rather leads to a government of ‘yes men’, which is flabby thinkers, devoid of new ideas. To quote from that interview, “The problem with the one-party system is not corruption – at least not in Singapore because the Government is not corrupt – but it leads to a society closed to new ideas, with too many “yes men”.

Nearly three years later this essential problem has not changed. It is not the salaries that are attracting or keeping away talent, it is a society closed to new ideas that 50 years of PAP rule has produced. Pegging salaries to high earners will only entrench the dearth of talent bringing in as it does all those motivated primarily by concern for their pockets. Within the PAP the cadre system reinforces this by making those who want to advance to ministerial rank dependent on the top leadership rather than on election by their peers. Outside the GRC system and other insults to democracy have long ensured walkovers for those who stand under the PAP banner. In GE 2011 we witnessed Chan Chun Sing move from being a General to being a Minister without one vote ever being cast in his favor by the public who pay his salary.

Principles one and two contradict each other. Public service is either public service and our leaders are servant leaders or they are in it for the money and their salaries need to keep pace with the top 500 earners. A discount on the 500th highest earner isn’t a sacrifice by any definition that any ordinary Singaporean could relate to and to call it a sacrifice is deeply insensitive in the current economic climate.

Principle number three can only be satisfied with complete transparency over actual amounts as well as weightings and statistics used. We see no reason at all why there should not be complete disclosure of ministerial pay including transparency of bonus payments received. This transparency should also extend to ministerial assets, investments and directorships, including a requirement that conflicts of interest be avoided by the use of a blind trust. If the government believes the amounts are reasonable and justified they should have no trouble declaring them.

No qualitative change
In any case the new method of calculating ministers’ salaries by using the median earnings of the top 1,000 earners who are Singapore citizens and then applying a 40% discount represents no qualitative change from the previous method. It is still not clear whether earnings mean purely returns to labour (wages and salaries) or also capital returns (capital gains, dividends and share options).

In any case the resultant benchmark still leaves ministerial salaries pegged at the level of the top 0.02% of Singaporeans. The committee has shot itself in the foot with this visible demonstration of how out of touch the PAP elite are with the other 99.98% of the population that lives on this ‘rock’. They are in effect saying that only the top 500 earners matter. It is the financial version of the cadre system and indicative of a fascist mindset that believes some classes of people matter more than others.

In 1994 the government introduced the proposal to peg salaries to top earners to attract talent and to prevent corruption. Public servants should not be corrupt and should not need to be paid to keep their fingers out of the till and in any case there has been corruption in the civil service despite this. The only safeguard against corrupt practices is openness and transparency.

Encourages divisive policies
It also gives Ministers a powerful incentive to pursue policies that increase the earnings of the top 500 even if this comes at the expense of the incomes of median Singaporeans. An example would be the deliberate policy of allowing the virtually unlimited import of cheap foreign labour which, by compressing wages for those in competition with foreign workers, has swelled the profits of companies operating in Singapore. This would be reflected in the higher pay, bonuses and dividends of their top Singaporean management and the Singaporean owners of companies. In turn, on the committee’s formula this would justify a higher level of ministerial salaries. So it encourages the government to pursue divisive policies that do not benefit ordinary Singaporeans. The Reform Party recognizes that profitability is necessary and that creativity and innovation should be encouraged. We also have no predetermined view on an acceptable level of income inequality. However gains in profitability should be the result of higher productivity and new products rather than by reducing the wages or increasing the squeeze of middle and lower-income Singaporeans.

Ministers can piggy back on genuine wealth creators
Benchmarking ministerial salaries in this manner also allows ministers to piggy-back on the hard work of those in the private sector who are genuine wealth-creators and even to raise the salaries of those in the public sector (both civil servants and executives in Temasek and other GLCs) to justify their own salary increases. The PAP’s record in raising the median incomes of Singaporeans normalized by hours worked over the last ten to fifteen years has been mediocre at best. Our output per hour worked continues to languish near the bottom of the developed world. Yet our ministerial salaries will, even after the pay cuts, be hugely out of line with those paid in countries with a more successful economic track record on productivity. The PM will still earn, in basic salary, about five times as much as the US President or the German Chancellor, yet Singapore’s output per hour worked has increased at only about 50% of the US rate over the last ten years.

Benchmark to Key Performance Indicators
The committee took 7 months to produce the report. Yet, the decision to use a variety of KPI’s was already recommended by the Reform Party in our press release of 23 May 2011 (http://thereformparty.net/about/press-releases/the-reform-party%E2%80%99s-response-to-the-setting-up-of-a-committee-to-review-ministerial-pay/). We called for a much lower basic salary and a variable component which was based on a much wider set of Key Performance Indicators than the GDP growth rate. The GDP growth rate is an unsuitable performance indicator, which can be manipulated by the government through an influx of foreign workers or overly generous tax incentives for foreign investment.

We are thus pleased that the Committee has taken on board part of our recommendation and that the National Bonus will be pegged to the growth rate of real median incomes as well as the growth rate of real median incomes of the twentieth percentile as well as GDP growth rate. However we are concerned that the Committee has not disclosed the weights to be used for the different indicators as well as the fact that the production of the statistics used to calculate the bonus remain under the government’s control.

Lack of credibility
The Reform Party therefore calls for the privatization of the Statistics Department so as to make its independence from the government more credible. We also believe that the use of GDP growth rates as a criterion should be abandoned and that median incomes should be normalized by dividing them by hours worked to get a better measure of productivity growth. In addition it is not clear what will happen when the growth rates of these indicators is negative. Will there be a high water mark, like there is with hedge funds? Will ministers have previous bonuses deducted in these circumstances?

Conclusion
This report and the recommendations demonstrate that the government is not concerned about the welfare of ordinary Singaporeans and sees itself as a class apart. It demonstrates not only the uncaring, elite face of the PAP leadership that lives in an Ivory tower but shows how divisions and fault lines in our society are caused by the government and its tired old elitist policies. Tax payers have no reason to celebrate.

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